The Birth of a New Nation

Hi Readers,

This week, a new nation was born: South Sudan! With its capital city at Juba and investments already pouring in from Uganda and Sudan, its future seems promising, especially with the news that it holds most of Sudan's oil reserves and that Chinese investment is already forthcoming. But in this case, we saw the Sudanese president Omar El-Bashir's willingness to accept the results of the secessionist referendum peacefully. What would have happened had he rejected the referendum?

Realpolitik in foreign policy suggests that nations always act in self-interest. The US and much of the international community has already shown that they do not care much about territorial sovereignty and democracy. This is shown by their tolerance of Israel's occupation of Palestine, the continued NATO bombing of Libya (they might as well just come out and declare open war on Gaddafi), or their rejection of the separatist governments of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, or even official recognition of Taiwan. At the same time, these same governments couldn't wait to jump on the bandwagon when Kosovo or South Sudan declared independence.

New governments and new countries are very malleable, and the western governments know this. That's why they oppose the independence of countries likely to fall under a rival influence. South Ossetia and Abkhazia were territories that belonged to Georgia, a US ally, and likely to be heavily influenced by Russia. At the same time, countries that are likely to fall into the US sphere of influence are heavily encouraged to secede. Kosovo belonged to Serbia, which has been part of the Russian influence since the Cold War. South Sudan belonged to Sudan, which has traditionally been heavily Muslim-ruled. If Taiwan had only not had the unfortunate historical distinction of belonging to China, a mega world player, it would have been accepted as independent decades ago.

For now, it remains interesting to see where South Sudan guides itself in the next decade. With a wealth of oil, it is very possible for corruption to run rampant and bring down the possibilities that come with the surge of resources into South Sudan.

Just a short post today. More later.

-FCDH